Latin American population prospects in the next fifteen years
El-Badry, M.A.
Population Studies 25(2): 183-192
1971
ISSN/ISBN: 0032-4728 PMID: 22070106 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.1971.10405797Document Number: 521807
Abstract This paper discusses some of the results of population projections by age and sex for the period 1965-85 which were prepared some years ago for Latin American countries. Despite the limitation of the data there are several short-range implications which deserve attention. The area which had the highest rate of growth among all the major areas of the world during the last 50 years, is expected to maintain a stable rate during the next 15 years. Though some fertility decline is anticipated, it is bound to be slower, in general, than expected in East and South Asia where cultural factors are not as strong. The gain in mortality is also expected to be relatively slow, but this is only because mortality has already reached fairly low levels compared to Asia and Africa. However, because of the young age distribution, the area is expected to have in the near future crude death rates which are so low that they have probably not been experienced before in normal human populations. A simple grouping of the population into pertinent age-sex groups gives information which undoubtedly raises serious questions concerning the adequacy of the measures which are now being taken or planned to meet the various needs of different population categories. For instance, in addition to existing problems, the economies will have to face the problem of absorbing within the next 15 years the anticipated increases of about 84 million in the labour force, the educational systems will have to provide for the schooling of about 28 million additional children of school age, and the planners for social and economic development will have to consider the measures necessary to face an increase of about 56% in the number of females of reproductive ages. The figures show clearly that the problems have different dimensions in different regions, with those of Central America being perhaps particularly serious.