Famine in China 1958-61
Ashton, B.; Hill, K.; Piazza, A.; Zeitz, R.
Population and Development Review 10(4): 613-641
1984
ISSN/ISBN: 0098-7921 DOI: 10.2307/1973284Document Number: 420003
The paper first presents demographic evidence that during the period 1958-62 about 30 million premature deaths occurred in China: deaths that occurred earlier than they would have on the basis of mortality trends for more normal years. At about the same time fertility dropped very significantly. The number of births during 1958-62 fell short by about 33 million of the number that would have been expected. Data on food availability demonstrate that the major cause of the demographic crisis was famine. Indeed, measured by the absolute magnitude of its demographic impact (about 30 million excess deaths and about 33 million lost or postponed births)the 1958-61 Chinese famine was the largest in human history. The data on food availability also suggest that, in contrast to many other famines, a root cause of this one was a dramatic decline in grain output, which continued for several years and which in 1960/61 involved a drop in grain output of more than 25%. The paper reviews both the causes of this drop and the apparent policy responses to it. It then attempts to answer the question of how the largest famine in human history could occur in modern times and go almost unrecognized outside China. Finally, it considers some of the implications of this experience for broader issues of Chinese and world development. The Chinese famine of 1958-61 was an extreme case. Grain production in the world's largest country dropped by 15% in one year and then to about 25% below its previous level for two further consecutive years. Any such situation would challenge the best organized system of internal food redistribution, as well as the most ambitious of international relief programs. But prior domestic policy errors apart, the tragedy of the Chinese famine of 1958-61 is that internal food redistribution was obviously limited and major international relief was never even attempted.