Demographic aspects of educational expansion and labour-force development in the Federal Republic of Germany
Tessaring, M.
European Journal of Population 3(3-4): 327-358
1988
ISSN/ISBN: 0168-6577 PMID: 12158952 DOI: 10.1007/bf01796904Document Number: 359246
This paper reviews the events of the last 25 years and the projections to 2030 for demographic trends, educational supply and demand, labor force potential, and teacher supply and demand, for the Federal Republic of Germany. Demographic projections taken from the Federal Bureau of Statistics predict that births will decline after 1990 until half as many are born in 2010 as in 1950. The population will decrease to 42 million in 2030, 16 million fewer than in 1970. Age structure will be even more striking, with the 0-15 year group making up only 11% in 2030. The structure of the German educational systems is presented in detail. Educational demand and expansion has been marked for both sexes recently, especially in post-secondary, university and trade schools. In 1984 80% of men and 70% of women aged 18 were enrolled, compared to 35% in 1960. This enrollment has temporarily restricted growth in the potential labor force. There is a need for projections of future employment, and for information about possible options in an open educational and labor market system. Germany has an Educational Accounting System that gives an overall picture of flows in education and the labor market. The student population is expected to peak at 1.4 million at the end of the 1980s. The German labor force potential will increase until 1990, when it will decline to 17 million by 2030, 8 million less than in 1972, and 10 million less than in 1990. 25,000 teachers will be needed annually from 1992 on. This discussion points up the importance of social and technological, as well as demographic, change, in the relative shifts of supply and demand over time.
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