The population development in the Federal Republic of Germany
Rein, D.B.
European Demographic Information Bulletin 8(2): 73-77
1982
ISSN/ISBN: 0046-2756 PMID: 12264475 DOI: 10.1007/bf02917715Document Number: 354561
It was with the decrease in births after 1964 and into the 1970s that there began to be greater concern for the demographic development in the Federal Republic of Germany. 1973 marked the establishment of the Federal Institute for Population Research. Various experts and committees have since then examined population development. The Interministerial Working Group on Population Matters was established late in 1978 to prepare a comprehensive report on population development in the Federal Republic. The 1st part of it was presented in the summer of 1980. Over the last 100 years the population has tripled to over 62 million in 1974, both due to an excess of births over deaths and to an excess of immigration. The death rate has been higher than the birthrate since 1971. The birthrate has declined markedly to where marriages concluded in 1968-72 would have approximately 160 children/100 marriages. Despite this drop, the population continued to increase until the mid-1970s. The decline in the German birthrate is based on a change in reproductive behavior (i.e., intentional limitation of family size). This change is rooted in several societal changes, among them greater geographical and social mobility, urbanization, process of secularization, changes in economic activities of men and women, and progress and spread of contraception. To forecast about population development farther into the future than 10-15 years requires the use of model calculations. These show the trend of population development under certain assumptions but do not predict the course of population development. Separate model calculations were prepared for the German and foreign resident populations because there are such differences in natality and migration. The 2nd part of the report shows the impact of population development on different aspects of politics and society and will be completed in 1982. Model calculations are presented in tabular form for the Federal Republic of Germany for the years 1990, 2000, and 2030.
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