Population change in the wake of agricultural improvement: lessons for Pakistan
Vosti, S.A.; Lipton, M.
Pakistan Development Review 31(4 Part 2): 715-726
1992
ISSN/ISBN: 0030-9729 PMID: 12286753 Document Number: 327935
The research goal was to examine the extent to which modern agricultural technologies affected total fertility rates (TFR) between 1971 and 1981 at the district level in rural India. Total fertility rates were estimated and indicated declines of varying degrees for all districts. A description is provided of changes in agricultural practices and fertility between 1960-61 and 1979-80, followed by ordinary least squares analysis of fertility and technological change. A range of indirect and direct variables measured agricultural technology, agriculture, and income. Demographic variables were primary school attainment of females and rural tribal population. The results showed that agricultural yields, production technologies, and modern input between 1961 and 1980 varied across and within states. Regression results indicated that technology had a highly significant direct impact on fertility change. In a full model, higher yielding varieties technologies in 1980, the stock of gross irrigated area in 1961, and the rate of growth of irrigated areas over the entire period, did not influence changes in total fertility rates (TFRs). However, increases in "down side" variation in growth rates from the established growth trend did accelerate declines in TFRs. The growth rate in 1961 and 1960-80 did not influence changes in TFR. Slower declines in TFRs were associated with districts in which there were above average levels of farm mechanization in 1961 and 1960-80. The more successful the staple crop yield (wheat), the slower the demographic transition. Districts with large "down side" variations in growth rates of yields had significantly faster rates of change in TFR. Increases in the percentage concentration of gross cropped area in the top 3 crops led to faster declines in TFR. Districts that had increased real wages at above average rates and low "down side" variations in wage rates had faster declines in TFR. Changes in the percentage of rural labor out of total employment were significantly, negatively related to TFRs. Growth in crop derived income was positively related to declines in fertility. Demographic transitions were speeded up by above average levels of female education among 19-24 and 24-34 year olds in 1971, but increased educational levels in the 20-24 age group slowed down declines in TFR. Economic development should focus on increasing the education of rural women in order to promote faster demographic transition.