China can feed its people: views from the White Paper on food security in China
China Population Today 13(5-6): 23-24
1996
PMID: 12320647 Document Number: 257689
This article draws upon China's White Paper on Food Security and Grain Production. The White Paper posits that China will be able to supply sufficient grain to feed its growing population and also supplement world grain supplies. Current grain consumption increased from 210 kg per capita in 1949 to 385 kg per capita in 1995. It is expected that population will reach 1.6 billion in 2030 before population begins to decline. It is expected that the per capita grain consumption could increase to 400 kg per capita during 1996-2030. China plans to meet consumption demands by increasing per unit yields on currently available cultivated land by 1% during 1996-2010 and by 0.7% during 2011-2030. These yield increases are considered small compared to the unit increases of 3.1% over the past 46 years. China plans on meeting consumption needs also by relying more on new developments in science and technology. Currently only 35% of agricultural productivity is due to science and technology. China also plans to protect cultivated land and turn 35 million hectares of wasteland into arable land. The government plans to reclaim over 300,000 hectares annually in order to compensate for reductions in arable land. Arable land is reduced by incursions from urban populations. 660,000 hectares of arable land are lost annually to urban growth, or 0.2% annually. The government must contend with the lack of incentives among farmers to produce grain, when other crops are more profitable and local governments are insufficiently funding the grain sector. China must address problems of water conservation and inadequate infrastructure. China agreed to expand land contracts for grain production from 15 years to 30 years and to permit land transfers without payment. The government will work to lower the cost of production, increase investment in infrastructure, and improve the operation of the grain market.