China's Below-Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects
Morgan, S.P.; Zhigang, G.; Hayford, S.R.
Population and Development Review 35(3): 605-629
2009
ISSN/ISBN: 0098-7921 PMID: 20376285 DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00298.xDocument Number: 240674
Between 1970 and 1990, China experiencoed a rapid and sharp fertility decline- from total fertility rates of approximately six births to two. The degree to which Chinese fertility has continued to fall after 1990 is controversial. We use survey data from the 1997 National Population and Reproductive Health Survey and from the 2001 Reproductive Health and Family Planning Survey to document recent trends in Chinese fertility. Our estimates provide further evidence that China's fertility is well below-replacement level at the turn of the twenty-first century- with Tfr levels of approximately 1.5 children per woman. Trends in parity-specific cohort fertility by age also suggest below replacement completed fertility for cohorts still in the childbearing years.