Below-replacement fertility: Determinants and prospects in South Asia
Caldwell, B.K.; Caldwell, J.C.
Journal of Population Research 20(1): 19-34
2003
ISSN/ISBN: 1443-2447 Document Number: 247872
Although 10 countries and two of China's special administrative areas, totalling 1,528 million people or 44 per cent of Asia's total population, are now characterized by fertility rates below long-term replacement levels, no such countries are yet found in South Asia. This paper first examines the characteristics of 12 Asian administrations with very low fertility at various stages of their fertility declines and then compares the findings with the present situation in three South Asian countries, Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. This allows a prediction of when the South Asian countries will reach replacement fertility in accord with the trends in two key criteria, the percentage of girls in secondary school and the infant mortality rate.