A modified probability distribution for first birth interval
Mishra, R.N.; Singh, K.K.; Dwivedi, S.N.
Rural Demography 11(1-2): 61-70
1984
ISSN/ISBN: 1010-3783 PMID: 12233468 Document Number: 423304
This paper develops a truncated continous probability distribution for the waiting time of Indian 1st birth day taking into account the fact that the inoperative period immediately after marriage due to adolescent sterility is exponentially distributed and females are exposed to the risk of conception at different points of time since marriage because of temporary separation from their husbands. The model is applied to various sets of observed distributions taken from Rural Development and Population Growth-A Sample Survey of Varanasi. Results show that the estimated values obtained for each marital duration group and for each point of truncation are about 4 years for group 1 (age at marriage 13-14), 2.6 years for group 2 (age at marriage 15), and 1.6 years for group 3 (age at marriage 16). Overall, females cross their period of adolescent sterility at about age 17.6 years.