Age pattern of fertility in the Sudan
Khalifa, M.A.
Journal of Biosocial Science 15(3): 317-323
1983
ISSN/ISBN: 0021-9320 PMID: 6885852 DOI: 10.1017/s0021932000014656Document Number: 394012
Birth registration in the Sudan as in many other developing countries is incomplete and far from accurate. Estimates are based on census or sample survey data. Methods of analysis are applied which are suitable to the kind and quality of the collected information, and data provided by the World Fertility Survey is used. The number of children everborn tabulated by the duration of marriage is used to derive an estimate of the age pattern of fertility. These observed average parities are here used for the estimation of the age specific fertility schedule. The advantages of applying this method to the Sudanese data are mainly due to the greater confidence in the reports of the duration of marriage than in reports of age. It is believed that sociocultural factors in the Sudan help to sustain a high level of fertility. A few of these factors are the high infant mortality rate, the high economic and psychological value of children, and the large preferred family size. In spite of the evidence of some contraceptive use, the effectiveness of such use in reducing fertility is low. Yet the present analysis shows that the level of marital fertility is only 78% of the natural model schedule, a level which is lower than expected. A possible explanation may lie in the high level of maternal morbidity, poor nutritional and hygienic conditions in general and the substantial amount of pregnancy wastage and number of stillbirths, especially for young wives. Adequate antenatal care is lacking or even absent in some areas. These factors may have a negative effect on fecundity. However, the crude birth rate is high. This may be due to the prevalence of the traditional pattern of 1st marriage characterized by early and almost universal marriage of females. The calculated crude birth rate is consistent with the rate calculated by other methods using different data.