Carrying capacity population growth and sustainable development a case study from the philippines
Western, S.
Journal of Environmental Management 27(4): 347-368
1988
ISSN/ISBN: 0301-4797 Document Number: 362703
Kirchner et al. (1984) produced a World Bank Staff Working Paper which gives an excellent exposition of human carrying capacity and its role in environmental degradation and sustainable development. An EEC-funded environmental study of the island of Palawan in the Philippines provides a fitting case study in this respect. Until recently, Palawan was almost unscathed by environmental degradation, with its upland tropical forest, beautiful scenery, often rare flora and fauna, and its considerable natural resources base all largely intact. An upsurge in population growth over the past two decades (to nearly twice the national annual rate) has resulted from accelerating in-migration from the more crowded and less fortunate parts of the Philippines. Over the inclusive 25-year period 1983-2007, the population is anticipated to rise from 318,000 to nearly one million. Land tenure problems on the lowland plaains and technical difficulties/prejudices in the extensive low hilly areas have directed the in-migrants on to steep, often mountainous land to practise their "kaingin", or shifting cultivation, resulting in accelerating destruction of the forests and an inevitable degradation of natural resources in all parts of the island and its adjoining marine waters (the "Present Trends" scenario). By dividing Palavan into six ecological zones and some 20 subzones, it was possible to identify those parts of the island where rural carrying capacity has been exceeded to the point that sustainable development is threatened. This approach was used to compare three overall strategies (Extended Development, Optimum Development, Maximum Conservation) with the continuation of Present Tends and with each other. The methodology involved the projection over 25 years of changes in land use and in agricultural systems, and hence in "population capacity", for each of the four secenarios.