Fertility levels, differentials, and trends
Udjo, E.O.
The demography of South Africa: 40-64
2005
Document Number: 358193
A study was conducted to estimate levels, differentials, and trends in fertility based on a critical analysis of recently available data from Statistics South Africa and assess whether or not the fertility inputs in projections of South Africa's population during the apartheid era overestimated fertility. Data on fertility from the 1995, 1997, 1998 October Household Surveys and the 1996 census were used. Supplementary analysis was also carried out on the 1970 census and birth registration. Total fertility rates declined from about 5.4 in 1970 to about 3.7 in 1996 among Africans. Among Coloreds, it declined from about 5.1 to 2.8 during the same period. It fell from about 4.1 to 2.7 among Indians/Asians and from 3.1 to 1.9 among Whites. At the national level, the total fertility rate declined from about 4.9 in 1970 to 3.2 in 1996. Results of the comparison of current data with those reviewed by Chimere-Dan suggested that the fertility of Africans in the 1970s and 1980s was overestimated in some previous studies, while the fertility of the other population groups was slightly underestimated. The lower-than-expected population of South Africa as of October 1996 is partly attributable to overestimation of fertility rates of Africans in the 1970s and 1980s that were included in projections of the population during the apartheid era. A cohort component rerun of both the national and population-group projections with the new fertility data confirmed lower-than-expected 1996 census figures (40.6 million instead of 42 million), especially for the African population (31.1 million instead of 32.1 million). However, the projections also suggested that the 1996 census adjustments for undercount overestimated the country's population, especially for the African population (probably by around 360 000) and underestimated the White population (probably by 100 000).