Perspectives in stochastic models of human reproduction: a review and analysis
Mode, C.J.
Theoretical Population Biology 8(3): 247-291
1975
ISSN/ISBN: 0040-5809 PMID: 769229 DOI: 10.1016/0040-5809(75)90045-3Document Number: 336918
The purpose of this paper is to review, to analyze, and to take steps toward synthesizing, two research areas in stochastic models of population dynamics. The first of these areas consists of stochastic models of human reproduction associated with the late Mindel C. Sheps and the second area is a class of stochastic models of population growth called generalized age-dependent branching processes, a class of models that shows promise of throwing more light on the classical mathematical demography of Lotka. The substantive material of the paper is arranged in eight sections ranging in content from a comparison of classical mathematical demography with generalized age-dependent branching processes, to suggestions for restructuring models of the Sheps school in quest of greater realism. The paper ends with a section on numerical examples illustrating applications in family planning evaluation and an appendix suggesting ways in which algebraic concepts are useful in short cutting computations.