The path to below replacement-level fertility in Thailand
Hirschman, C.; Tan, J.E.; Chamratrithirong, A.; Guest, P.
International Family Planning Perspectives 20(3): 82-87
1994
ISSN/ISBN: 0190-3187 DOI: 10.2307/2133509Document Number: 330708
This paper reports annual fertility rates for Thailand for the 1980s that suggest that below replacement-level fertility (a decline from more than six children per woman to less than two) was reached by the end of the decade. Demographers underestimated the pace of Thailand's fertility decline and did not expect replacement fertility until late in the 1990s. The internal consistency of the fertility rates is first examined from the 1990 Population Census and the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. The pace of economic and social development in Thailand has been rapid, especially in the 1980s, but the country remains classified as a low-income country. The problems of sampling and measurement error preclude precise measurement. These problems are compounded with indirect techniques (such as own-children methods of estimating fertility) that require multiple adjustments. The primary method has been to compare fertility estimates across different data sources. The estimates of both levels and trends in Thai fertility are in high agreement. The evidence of below replacement-level fertility for the late 1980s largely rests on the 1990 Census own-children estimates. Despite the conventional wisdom that fertility transitions are supposed to lead to low fertility, there is a generalized reluctance among demographers to predict the course of fertility trends or to anticipate the attainment of below replacement-level fertility in developing countries, founded on the uncertainty of measurement. The reproductive revolution of the last generation has changed the composition of most Thai families, but the social and normative fabric of Thai society is still in the process of adjustment. Among the changes that might be expected are greater social and economic investment in individual children, more time for nonfamily activities and increased demands to care for elderly parents. these social changes will reverberate across the cultural and normative framework of Thailand in the coming years.