Path analysis of areal fertility in rural India
Roy, S.G.
Rural Demography 8(2): 1-12
1981
ISSN/ISBN: 1010-3783 PMID: 12312782 Document Number: 400736
This study illustrates the application of a recursive path analytic model in analyzing how social and economic factors condition the relationship between fertility and acceptance of birth control measures. It uses States and Union Territories of India (rural) as units of observation. The data used for each area is current fertility measures of non-program variables having a direct or indirect effect on fertility. The whole set of concomitant variables could not be considered, as they are not all to be found in the usual sources of areal statistics. Corresponding to the model, tentatively proposed, the path diagram has been used to represent dependence of endogenous variabels upon other endogenous variables, exogenous variables, or disturbances. A few tests were done to ensure that the model was appropriate. For example, the assumption of no direct effect of a variable on certain others was checked by comparing correlations obtained from the model with those observed. Several results emerge from the analysis. For example, age at marriage influences age specific fertility through its effect on marital fertility and to a lesser extent through proportion married. Acceptance of birth control measures decreases age specific fertility primarily through marital fertility. The study breaks down the composite variable (age specific fertility) into its components (proportion married and marital fertility) before conducting a search for its variability. The results indicate that the national antinatalist policy is unlikely to contribute much to acceleration of fertility decline. With socioeconomic development and institution of social measures such as raising the minimum age at marriage, motivations to accept effective control measures at a low parity level will take place and fertility will automatically move downward.