An analysis of the population growth in the Seventh Five-Year Plan period
Yang, S.
China Population Today 8(3): 11-12
1991
PMID: 12343637 Document Number: 318202
The analysis of the 7th 5-Year, Plan in China indicates 30 million more people than the 1.113 billion targeted for 1990, i.e., total population is 1.143 billion. An average increase of 13.75 million annually between 1980-85 occurred; the average annual births were 20.47 million and deaths were 6.73 million. Between 1985-90, the average increase grew to 17.45 million, with births at 24.95 million and deaths at 7.50 million. There were 4.48 million more births annually in the recent past, attributed to women born during the baby boom in the 1960s. The actual average number of children per couple dropped. 256.47 million women averaged annually were of childbearing ages of 15-49 from 1980-85, and 291.43 million from 1985 to 1990. In the most fecund ages, 20-29 years, the number of women increased by 16.65%, from 86.01 to 100.33 million in 1985-90. The actual 1985 population was 1.05579, and the difference between the expected and the actual in 1985 and the fertility estimates account for the 30 million difference is the 1990 expected and actual population. 10.5 million are due to the estimating error in population and 8 million to the estimating error in fertility. The other 12 million are a result of unanticipated fertility increase. in developing the 7th 5 Year Plan, expectations were too high for the decline in fertility, and unplanned births were not brought under control. The trends in the 1980s were ones of an initial sharp reduction and then narrow ranged fluctuations. The transition was not apparent. There was great eagerness to have a sharp decline because of the overpaid population growth, which was an aspiration not a reality. The 1986-87 period produced millions of unplanned births. Contributing factors were also adjustments made in the family planning policy and ineffective family planning programs.