A comparative study of demographic changes in China and India
Sun, H.; Wu, C.
Chinese Journal of Population Science 7(3): 277-285
1995
ISSN/ISBN: 1044-8403 PMID: 12290863 Document Number: 295185
This paper examines changes in fertility and mortality, compares these changes in China and India, attributes causes for the differences in patterns, and compares changes with other countries. Modern demographic changes began first in developed countries during the late 18th century. The Western changes included balances between fertility and mortality at low levels, life expectancy above 74 years, at least replacement level fertility, slow or no population growth, and an increased proportion of aged in the total population. After World War II, developing countries began their transitions. During 1950-55 demographic changes were similar between China, India, Asia, and Africa, while Europe was in the fourth stage. By 1980-85, China was at the fourth stage of transition. India and Asia were in the third stage, and Africa was only in the second stage. China achieved the rapid decline in mortality through the improvement of medical and health conditions. The different age structures in India and China illustrate the different patterns of demographic change. Both countries had similar age structures during the 1950s. The age pyramid in China reveals distinct patterns for those born prior to 1970 and those born after 1979. High fertility marked the 1970s and earlier cohorts, and low fertility was in evidence after 1979. The age pyramid remained unchanged in India after the 1950s. Both countries now face the need for effective population control. For China, the net increase is 16 million a year, even though the country is approaching replacement level fertility. In India, a large proportion of the population is young, and population is still growing. China faces additional challenges due to rapid fertility decline and the growing number of elderly.