Fertility control and income distribution in developing countries with national family planning programmes
Ogawa, N.
Pakistan Development Review 17(4): 431-450
1978
ISSN/ISBN: 0030-9729 PMID: 12309176 DOI: 10.2307/41258437Document Number: 521132
Cross-sectional data for 20 developing countries with national family planning programs around 1970 are used to explore possible linkages between variations in income distribution and fertility changes through government family planning programs within the framework of a simultaneous 3-equation model. The data for the analysis are drawn primarily from statistics compiled by the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Population Council. The model consists of 3 functions: a family planning acceptance function, a crude birthrate function, and an income distribution function. The model includes 3 endogenous and 6 exogenous variables. The model focuses upon fertility reduction due to the practice of modern contraceptives, thus precluding from its analysis the effect of traditional and non-contraceptive methods upon fertility changes. This model has shown several important interactive links between income distribution and fertility through government family planning programs as the only fertility regulation means. It was found that in developing countries economic development affects both on family planning performance and fertility in 2 opposite directions. 1st, higher levels and faster rates of economic development induce greater inequality of income, which in turn aggravates family planning acceptance and crude birthrates. 2nd and conversely, economic development contributes favorably to higher contraceptive acceptance rates through changes in the utility and disutility of having large-sized families. The income distribution effect in this model is slightly dominated by the family planning effect, which in turn leads to an overall positive impact of economic development upon fertility.