The future of long life
Gavrilov, L.A.; Gavrilova, N.S.
Science 281(5383): 1611-2; author reply 1613-5
1998
ISSN/ISBN: 0036-8075 PMID: 9767024 Document Number: 492531
Three letters comment on the report by John R. Wilmoth that human longevity could be predicted by the simple extrapolation of mortality trends, which appeared in the April 17 issue. The first letter contends that the data on age-specific mortality rates published by the Social Security Administration and used by Wilmoth to support his assertion are complicated and not consistent with the declared long-term stability of the historical mortality decline. The second letter agrees that the mortality trend has been favorable over the last century but argues that the decline in mortality has not been steady. Although the third letter declares Wilmoth's arguments and data to be convincing, the writer addresses Wilmoth's failure to point out a conclusion that would naturally follow. A reply is included.