A generalized HLA prediction model for related donor matches
Kaufman, R.
Bone Marrow Transplantation 17(6): 1013-1020
1996
ISSN/ISBN: 0268-3369 PMID: 8807108 Document Number: 459476
This article derives a generalized probabilistic model for predicting HLA matches from a population of family members consisting of all blood-related descendants of one pair of patient's grandparents, excluding parents and siblings, for three subsequent generations. This consists of the patient's children, blood-related aunts/uncles, first cousins, first cousins once removed and nephews/nieces. (It is assumed that the patient's siblings and parents were tested prior but did not produce a match.) The model uses family pedigree information and haplotype frequency data to estimate the likelihood of a match. Results are given for many ethnic groupings. These results indicate that such a family search frequently approximates or exceeds the 0.25 success rate of a single sibling search when the patient possesses a common haplotype within the patient's ethnic population, and the family members are also of the same ethnic origin. Families of the same lineage averaging more than two children/nuclear family substantially exceed the 0.25 rate. The results degrade only modestly for the two children/nuclear family scenario when first cousins once removed are excluded from the search. Among the study's larger nations of Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom, approximately 15-20% of the population can potentially benefit from such searches. These percentages are much higher for the study's smaller countries.