Fertility transition in Pakistan: evidence from census
Ali, S.M.; Jafar Hussain
Pakistan Development Review 40(4(2)): 537-550
2001
ISSN/ISBN: 0030-9729 Document Number: 427251
The data for this study was taken from 1961 and onward censuses. Results revealed a declining trend in the crude birth rate over the period 1961 to 1998. The maximum decline is evident between 1961 and 1972 and the minimum between 1972 and 1981. In Pakistan, where almost all births occur within wedlock, a change in the proportion married has implications for fertility. The proportion of married women of reproductive ages has continued to decline since 1961 and overall it has declined over 24 percentage points during 1961 to 1998. Among various age groups, the highest decline in the proportion of married women is evident in the age group 15-19 years followed by successive age groups. Data on the estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFR's) and total fertility rate (TFR) are tabulated. The ASFR's estimated here follow a pattern very close to the pattern observed for 1996-97 Pakistan Fertility and Family Planning Survey (PFFPS) and 2000-01 Pakistan Reproductive Health and Family Planning Survey (PRHFPS). Where as a TFR of 5.06 children estimated indirectly in this study lies in between 5.3 and 4.8 children - the estimated TFR's of 1996-97 PFFPS and 2000-01 PRHFPS, respectively. The analysis of census data clearly suggests that fertility has declined in Pakistan.