The decline of fertility in Western Europe. II. Which fertility rate would be desirable in France?
Calot, G.
Revue d'Epidemiologie et de Sante Publique 25(1): 9-20
1977
ISSN/ISBN: 0398-7620 PMID: 617870 Document Number: 345319
A way to try and assess the significance of such or such level in long term fertility is to work out population projections based on a variety of assumptions and to compare their different implications. The age pyramids of France until 2100 that derive from four contrasted evolutions of fertility are studied in the present article: completed fertility in birth cohorts ranging from 1.4 to 2.6 children per woman. While some demographic parameters are not much sensitive to the assumption made for the fertility level (e.g. percent of economically active people in total population), others are closely related to fertility (such as total number of inhabitants, percent of younger people or of older people in total population, annual rate of entry into economically active population). In France, where population density is much lower than in most neighbouring countries, a fertility level that would lay at -- or a little higher than -- replacement (i.e. 2.1 children per woman) can be considered as a desirable target.