Nigerian census surprises experts
Haub, C.
Population Today 20(6): 3
1992
ISSN/ISBN: 0749-2448 PMID: 12317359 Document Number: 318905
In 1989, Nigeria set up the independent National Population Commission (NPC) to undertake a long awaited, free of political tampering census. The head of the NPC separated the country into 7 census areas. Someone with no natal or marital connection to the area headed each area. The NPC followed current guidelines on conducting a census and held pretests and a rehearsal. It hired about 800,000 enumerators. Finally, in 3 days in November 1991, they collected census data from households where people were instructed to remain between 6-18 o'clock. This request along with other points helped to depoliticize this census. For example, population size would no longer determine distribution of government expenditures. Further the census questionnaire did not contain any questions to politicized topics mainly ethnic group, language, or religion. The results of the census revealed that population size was actually 88.5 million instead of the 1991 population estimates of 112-123 million. Lawmakers and leaders in several states have already called for recounts. In the past, census counts were inflated to increase revenue and due to ethnic conflict. Past population estimates have been based on the 1963 census which, despite its questionable reliability, was deemed more accurate than that of 1973. The 1963 count was officially 56 million, but the UN Demographic Yearbook reported it to be 46 million. Yet, now that the results of the much more reliable 1991 census are known, even 46 million was probably too high. The 1991 count indicated that the 1963 count was more likely between 36-41 million which was quite compatible with the 1953 count. Some population specialists fear that this much smaller population size will result in the government and people downplaying population policies and family planning. Indeed 1 political leader already told men to marry more wives and have more children. Yet the population may reach 120 million by 2000 at its current 3% rate of natural increase.