An assessment of the one-child policy in China from 1980 to 1985
Larsen, U.
European Journal of Population 6(3): 257-284
1990
ISSN/ISBN: 0168-6577 PMID: 12158960 DOI: 10.1007/bf01796621Document Number: 374155
The 1st 5 years (1980-85) of China's 1-child policy were assessed through an analysis of fertility survey data from Hebei and Shaanxi provinces that have followed the general fertility transition pattern in China and are relatively developed in terms of agriculture and industry. The sample included 1566 women from Hebei and 1033 women from Shaanxi, 695 and 504 of whom, respectively, had a 2nd live birth conception. A proportional hazards model approach was used to analyze the simultaneous of several explanatory variables on 2nd birth conceptions. The 2nd birth conception rates were 0.49 in rural and 0.26 in urban Hebei and 0.55 in rural and 0.30 in urban Shaanxi. If the 1st child was female, the risk of a 2nd live birth conception was 1.35 times greater in rural Hebei and 1.52 times greater in rural Shaanxi; however, the sex of the 1st child had no significant impact on subsequent reproductive behavior in the 2 urban areas. In the urban areas a higher yearly household income per person was the variable most strongly associated with 2nd live birth conceptions. When the data for urban and rural residents were pooled, the risk of a 2nd live birth conception did not vary significantly by place of residence in Shaanxi; in Hebei, however, rural residence remained a significant factor, most likely reflecting the more lax enforcement of the national family planning program in this area. The 3rd birth conception rates were 0.22 for rural and 0.12 for urban Hebei and 0.28 for rural and 0.14 for urban Shaanxi. The sex of the 1st 2 children was 3.6 times higher in Hebei and 2.9 times higher in Shaanxi when the 1st 2 children were girls than when there was 1 girl and 1 boy. These findings suggest that to maintain or lower fertility in these areas, there must be substantial improvement in economic conditions in the countryside and implementation of policies such as retirement pensions to reduce son preference.
Document emailed within 0-6 h
