Prediction of the Number of Home-Visit Care, Home-Visit Nursing Care, and Home-Visit Bathing Providers in 2025 in the Hokushinetsu Region Using a Mathematical Model and Examination of Geographical Features Using a Geographic Information System
Nakai, H.; Itatani, T.; Horiike, R.
Gan to Kagaku Ryoho. Cancer and ChemoTherapy 46(Suppl 1): 144-146
2019
ISSN/ISBN: 0385-0684 PMID: 31189841 Document Number: 364871
In this research, we constructed a prediction model for the number of service providers for home-visit care, home-visit nursing, and home-visit bathing by using the population in the Hokushinetsu region and the current number of providers, and considered the validity of the model. Using the model, we estimated the number of providers in 2025, and subsequently, visually confirmed geographical features using a geographic information system. The adjusted R2 value of the prediction model was 0.93 for home-visit care, 0.87 for home-visit nursing, and 0.63 for home-visit bathing providers. The number of providers for home-visit care, home-visit nursing, and home-visit bathing were estimated to decrease by 67%, 67%, and 28%, respectively. The colored map by the predicted number of providers suggested a significant decrease in home-visit care in Northern Nagano, home-visit nursing in Fukui-Reihoku region, and home-visit bathing in Middle Nagano.