Two models for microsimulation of family life cycle and family structure
Bertino, S.; Pinnelli, A.; Vichi, M.
Genus 44(1-2): 1-23
1988
ISSN/ISBN: 0016-6987 PMID: 12281660 Document Number: 359077
Two models are proposed for the microsimulation of the family and an analysis of their structure and life cycle. These models were pirmarily devised for teaching purposes. The families are composed of three generations (grand-parents, parents, children). Whether or not they are cohabiting is not considered. The first model is governed by a transition mechanism based on the rules of Markof multidimensional, non homogenous chain. The second is based on stochastic point processes. Input data comprise annual mortality probability according to sex, age and civil status, annual probability of the first marriage, age combinations between the spouses, the probability of the first marriage, age combinations between the spouses, the probability of having 1, 2, 3, or more children, at six month intervals from the previous event (marriage, birth of n. 1 child). The applications of the first model are presented using two mortality and fertility hypotheses (high and low) and a nuptiality hypothesis (West European nature). The various features of family composition and are analysed according to the duration of the couple's marriage and the age of individual, as well as the characterized features of the individual's and family life cycle given these two demographic conditions.