Global carrying capacity: how many people?
People Count 2(6): 1-4
1992
ISSN/ISBN: 0117-5602 PMID: 12179244 Document Number: 337463
During 1980-85 energy consumption in developing countries increased by 22%, of which 50% was used to maintain current levels of use and 50% pertained to real economic growth. Commercial energy consumption during 1970-89 tripled in developing countries. Population growth alone is expected to increase world energy consumption from the current 13.5 terawatts (13.5 trillion watts) to 18 terawatts by 2025 at the same level of use. The increased level of consumption (4.5 terawatts) is the equivalent of total current commercial energy consumption. One terawatt is equal to energy use from 5 billion barrels of oil yearly, 1 billion tons of coal, or 1.6 billion tons of wood. Economic development will require even greater levels of energy use. Since the oil price increases of the 1970s, developed countries increased their energy consumption by about 33%, even while becoming more fuel efficient. During 1990-2025, if developing countries double their per capita energy use and developed countries reduce their use by 50%, world energy consumption will still be almost 21 terawatts. If consumption remains constant at current levels without any population increase, the oil supply will be exhausted in 40 years. Coal consumption will last hundreds of years but air pollution will worsen, and global warming will be accelerated. Developed countries, which are wealthier, are having difficulty switching to non-fossil fuels, and the prospects for developing countries pose even greater challenges. Slowing growth buys time for technological development. World population is expected to reach 8 billion by 2020. Stabilization of growth at 8 billion would occur only if world fertility averages 1.7 children per woman by 2025. One opinion is that the carrying capacity has been reached with the present population of 5.4 billion. Others say that with changes in consumption and technological developments the earth can sustain 8 billion people. The physical limits are 1) the finite capacity of natural systems to provide food and energy and to absorb wastes, 2) the amount of greenhouse gases tolerated in the atmosphere without untoward side effects, and 3) the amount of fresh water available to support all forms of life.