The demographic impact of the Philippine family planning program: a tale of two Metro Manilas
People Count 3(10): 1-3
1993
ISSN/ISBN: 0117-5602 PMID: 12179226 Document Number: 337037
This pamphlet predicts the rates of contraceptive prevalence, total fertility, and population growth in the Philippines during 1970-2000. Contraceptive prevalence was 14.5% in 1970 and is expected to be 50% in 2000. Total fertility was 5.9 in 1970 and is expected to be 3.2 in 2000. Population was 36 million in 1970, 65 million in 1993, and is expected to be 75 million in 2000. If the family planning program had not continued to expand after 1970, population would have been 75 million in 1993 and would rise to 96.7 million in 2000. With expanded family planning, the difference in population for 2000 is 22 million people, or the equivalent of 2 metropolitan Manilas. A projected population that is smaller by 22 million is important for carrying capacity. A summary is given of the world situation proposed by Worldwatch. The projection is for increased demand for food from the 90 million people a year added to total world population. Food output during 1950-84 increased dramatically. However recent trends indicate that fish harvests from oceans have leveled off at 100 million tons a year and fish prices have risen rapidly. Fresh water shortages are now apparent in the United States, Mexico, China, India, and the Middle East. Grain production has slowed. Per capita output of rice, corn, and wheat has declined by 11% since 1984. World stocks of rice are low. Grain prices have doubled on the Chicago Board of Trade. Fertilizer use has declined 12% since 1989. Much crop production has reached maximum yields. Topsoil is disappearing, and cropland expanded only 2% in the last 10 years. Since 1945, 2 million hectares of land have been degraded by overgrazing, deforestation, and agricultural mismanagement.