Population, development, and the environment: trends and key issues in the developed countries
Commoner, B.
International Journal of Health Services Planning Administration Evaluation 23(3): 519-539
1993
ISSN/ISBN: 0020-7314 PMID: 8375953 DOI: 10.2190/tq24-k0v6-unhy-qba1Document Number: 335141
The notion of "pollution per capita" has obscured the role of technology in production, which governs the impact of population and economic development on the environment. The common view has been that population growth affects economic development which, in turn, affects the environment. A more accurate representation would be that population affects production technology which affects both economic development and the environment. Various technologies affect economic development and the environment differently. Photochemical smog, toxic chemicals, rapid eutrophication, hazardous waste and trash disposal have all been transformed by production technologies since World War II. Environmental improvement in developed countries must entail changes in decisions made about the design of systems of production. Ecologically sound economic development requires transforming the means of production. Data on carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxide (NO) emissions from automobiles for 1970-87 were obtained from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and analyzed. The magnitude of change in vehicles per km, in CO emissions, in population, in vehicle-km per population, and in CO emissions per vehicle-km showed that changes varied over time by country. The technology impact on CO emissions improved in every country. When the PAT equation was converted to logarithm form, the result indicated that population change had little impact on CO emissions in developed countries. Although the changes in the "affluence factor" were great, the impact on CO emissions was limited and the major impact was from technology. In only four countries was the impact of annual CO emissions too small to affect the impact of population growth and the increase in traffic: Norway, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. However, NO emissions, which result from high compression engines of passenger cars and which cannot be controlled with exhaust control devices, have increased in every country. Changes in population had a smaller effect on NO emissions than affluence or technology. Technology had the strongest impact on NO emissions; the impact of technology varied by country. Similar analysis of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides showed the strong impact of technology.