Projection for household development in China
Guo, Z.
Chinese Journal of Population Science 3(2): 121-129
1991
ISSN/ISBN: 1044-8403 PMID: 12317649 Document Number: 328674
In traditional Chinese culture, marriage and setting up a new household is the most important event in life with the requisite purchases of real estate, furniture and other large items from years of savings. The development of the national economy depends on these households to as significant extent as they also provide microeconomic functions in society. The sex age-specific householder rate method was used for forecasting the number of future households. The UN medium projection of the population of China for the year 2000 indicated 1,285,000,000, the low projection showed 1,260,000,000 and the high projection came up with 1,300,000,000 with an essentially unchanged number of households and probably smaller average household size. The 1988, the China Population Statistics Almanac disclosed that in 1987 there was a total 258,340,000 households expected to increase according to the medium projection to 370,000,000 households expected to increase according to the medium projection to 370,640,000 by 2000. This annual growth rate of 2.8% exceeds the rate of 1.4% in the 1950s, 1.8% in the 1960s and early 1970s and 2.4% during 1975-87. The data of the Statistics Bureau and the Ministry of Public Security for 1985-89 yielded an annual household growth rate of 3.6%. This could be attributed to the increased number of births following the troublesome early 1960s who enter marriage age now. Based on the average household living space of 61.37 sq m there would be an additional 6,890,000,000 sq m of living space requirement for 112,300,000 new households. The proportion of urban population would rise from the level of 1987 when the agricultural population made up 80.1% and the nonagricultural segment comprised 19.8%. New household construction would require planning, raising funds, building materials, construction teams, and land.