The contribution of the World Fertility Survey data to our understanding of fertility levels and trends in selected developing countries
Population bulletin of the United Nations 1984(16): 62-76
1984
ISSN/ISBN: 0251-7604 PMID: 12266662 Document Number: 327764
The World Fertility Surveys (WFS) data represent an important addition to the stock of data on fertility for certain developing countries. This article assesses the contribution of that for the 1st 20 WFS countries to the knowledge of fertility trends as of 1983. The major highlights of the findings are summarized with respect to the quality of the fertility estimates from WFS data, (reported in much greater detail in "Fertility Levels and Trends as Assessed from 20 World Fertility Surveys"). The fertility estimates for those 20 countries are reviewed to assess in each case whether WFS results have added new knowledge of fertility trends as well as more recent information on fertility that might not have been available from vital registration, census data or other fertility surveys. The countries are categorized into 3 groups: a group for which an accurate picture of fertility levels and trends would have been available even if WFS had not taken place; a group for which WFS contributed fertility estimates of better quality than previously available ones; and a group for which WFS provided new estimates but estimates of poor quality. The detailed maternity histories in WFS allowed calculation of age-specific marital fertility rates which have not been systematically available for those countries prior to the WFS. When contrasted with recent censuses and surveys, the WFS data have a good record with respect to the enumeration of children ever born, especially for older women who are more likely to omit births. There is a suggestion of underenumeration and/ or shifting of births for the 1 or 2 years prior to the survey of Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Panama. It is also possible that estimates of recent declines in birth rates have been exaggerated for certain countries. Despite the overall success of the WFS, problems relating to sampling errors and certain frequently observed distortions in birth rate trends in the -2 years before the survey fertility rates cannot be reliably pinpointed for individual calendar years. For certain countries, the WFS, which was designed to take account of past survey experience, failed to even provide reliable estimates for recent fertility trends.