An analysis of the correlation between the fertility rate and the demand for contraceptives
Chen, P.; Guo, H.
Chinese Journal of Population Science 3(4): 307-314
1991
ISSN/ISBN: 1044-8403 PMID: 12343856 Document Number: 323659
Scientists at the Population Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences applied 1987 Nationwide Fertility and Birth Control Sample Survey data for Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in China to a contraceptive usage model to examine the relationship between contraceptive usage and the fertility rate. In Hebei in 1987, 64.76% of 17-60 year old women had used contraception. The total contraceptive usage rate for 15-49 year old women was 74.13%. There were about 75,000 male and female sterilizations, 240,000 IUD insertions, and even greater usage of oral contraceptives (OCs) and external contraceptives (e.g., condom, cervical cap, and diaphragm) in Hebei. Assuming the fertility rate did not change,the demand for contraceptives in 1988 in Hebei was 20 sexual sterilizations, 63 IUD insertions, 285.5 months of OCs, and 462.7 months of external contraceptives. The corresponding figures in Shaanxi were 15,43, 165, and 76. Peak age when couples underwent sexual sterilization was 28-30 years in Hebei and 24-29 years in Shaanxi and 23-27 years for IUD insertion in Hebei and 26-34 years in Shaanxi. Age when contraceptives were first used was somewhat higher in Hebei than in Shaanxi, but mean termination age was the same in both provinces (46 years). Contraceptive demand was greater in Hebei than Shaanxi (2014 vs. 1676). The model indicated that if the fertility rate increased, demand would be considerably greater. Further research is needed to determine the contraceptive demand if there is a 1-unit decrease in the fertility rate. Family planning policy makers can use this model to develop future family planning services and to project the magnitude of contraceptive demand.