Assessment of prognosis with Markov chains in chronic cardiovascular diseases in relation to various therapies
Grimm, J.; Hempel, W.E.; Gerst, H.; Richter, K.; Hempel, B.
Zeitschrift für die Gesamte Innere Medizin und ihre Grenzgebiete 43(8): 205-209
1988
ISSN/ISBN: 0044-2542 PMID: 3400296 Document Number: 321887
On the basis of 5-years intervention results concerning chronic heart and vessel diseases of a check, which is representative for approx. 280.000 inhabitants of defined territories (EBMO-Cor Berlin), the prognose for the time of 5 and 10 years were estimated. It refers to ambulantories with the diagnosis hypertension and coronary heart disease, who were treated in a different way. The fundamental idea was to extract a prognostic index to make possible a choice of the treatment, adequate to the specific disease and its severe degrees, free of chance. The basic requirement of the application of the "Markoff-model" was the evidence of homogeneity concerning transition of severe degrees, used as reference, which was proved by means of the 2-k-chi 2-Felder-test. By using a starting vector of 1000 patients in each case inquiries about the distribution to the severe degrees had been made. The so achieved results illustrate a therapy-dependent susceptibility of these (morphologically defined) population suffering from a heart disease and allow a forecast, estimated also for a longer period, about the extent of the transition of a respecting and with the possibilities of the outpatient practice defined severe degrees of a heart and circulation disease and with that about chance and risk of a patient. By means of the epidemiological reference of the study the result gains special importance for outpatient practice.