How bad will it be? Modelling the AIDS epidemic in eastern Africa
Way, P.O.; Stanecki, K.
Population and Environment 14(3): 265-278
1993
ISSN/ISBN: 0199-0039 DOI: 10.1007/bf01254375Document Number: 316651
The spread of HIV infection and the subsequent AIDS morbidity and mortality threatens to have a substantial impact on societies in subSaharan Africa. Infection levels are increasing rapidly in many regions, especially in urban areas. The consequences of high levels of infection are inescapable, although, due to the long incubation period, morbidity and mortality increases lag several years behind increases in infection levels. The impact of a serious AIDS epidemic will be felt by many sectors of the society. Mortality levels will substantially increase, especially among newborns and adults under age 50. This mortality will remove many productive members from the economy, while HIV-related illness will reduce the productivity of the infected population. Health care facilities will be severely strained to bear the increases in hospitalized populations. Those without access to the formal health care system will rely on family members for support and care.
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