Changes in the demography of Romania Past trends and futures perspectives
Muresan, C.
Population 51(4-5): 813-844
1996
ISSN/ISBN: 0032-4663 Document Number: 305302
This paper reviews demographic changes in Romania during the communist and early post-communist period, including changing structural factors (activity rates, housing, age distribution, ethnic composition), but the discussion is focused mainly on developments in fertility and their consequences. Romanian population policy was coercive in character, and in some cases imitated the Soviet model, whilst retaining its specificity as a result of Ceausescu's influence. Abortion and divorce were banned in 1966. The policy had significant repercussions on fertility and resulted in irregularities at the bottom of the age pyramid. Actual changes are compared with expected changes associated with the demographic transition. Simulation models are used to obtain estimates of the additional births caused by forced natality, the influence on the growth rate, and the slower ageing of the population. Projections up to the year 2030 show that population decline which began in 1990 will vary depending on the assumptions made.