Prediction models for mortality in adult patients visiting the Emergency Department: a systematic review

Brink, A.; Alsma, J.; Fortuin, A.W.; Bramer, W.M.; Zietse, R.; Lingsma, H.F.; Schuit, S.

Acute Medicine 18(3): 171-183

2019


ISSN/ISBN: 1747-4884
PMID: 31536055
Document Number: 17953
We provide a systematic overview of literature on prediction models for mortality in the Emergency Department (ED). We searched various databases for observational studies in the ED or similar setting describing prediction models for short-term mortality (up to 30 days or in-hospital mortality) in a non-trauma population. We used the CHARMS-checklist for quality assessment. We found a total of 14.768 articles and included 17 articles, describing 22 models. Model performance ranged from AUC 0.63-0.93. Most articles had a moderate risk of bias in one or more domains. The full model and PARIS model performed best, but are not yet ready for implementation. There is a need for validation studies to compare multiple prediction models and to evaluate their accuracy.

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Prediction models for mortality in adult patients visiting the Emergency Department: a systematic review