Epidemiological characteristics on temporal-spatial distribution of varicella in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 2014-2016
Xu, Y.Q.; Fu, Z.Z.; Zhou, J.Y.; Deng, G.H.; Gong, C.; Cai, F.W.; Han, S.S.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 38(10): 1390-1393
2017
ISSN/ISBN: 0254-6450 PMID: 29060986 Document Number: 693741
目的： 分析2014－2016年广西壮族自治区（广西）水痘疫情的时空分布特征，为水痘防控工作提供依据。 方法： 水痘疫情数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病疫情报告监测数据，地理信息数据来源于中国CDC。采用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行全局和局部空间自相关分析水痘发病的空间聚集性，采用SaTScan v9.1.1软件进行时空扫描分析水痘疫情的时空聚集性。 结果： 广西2014－2016年水痘报告发病率分别为32.48/10万、43.56/10万和61.56/10万。在县级水平发病整体上存在正向空间自相关（Moran's I在0.24~0.35之间，P<0.01），高发病、高-高聚集区较为一致，均分布于广西西北部地区。时空扫描结果显示，发病主要聚集时间为每年的10月至次年1月，每年的一类聚集区主要分布于河池市全部和百色市大部分地区，基本覆盖了广西西北部地区，2016年在广西东北部地区以灌阳县为中心和南部地区以海城县为中心，分别出现1个波及范围较广的二类聚集区。 结论： 广西水痘疫情呈现上升趋势，发病在整体上呈现较明显的时空聚集性，西北部地区聚集性高，需重点防治。此外，在水痘高发季节需加强对其周边地区的防控力度。.
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