Estimate of the incidence of HIV in the adult population of Paraguay using the MoT mathematical model

Samudio, M.; Vesga, J.F.; Cohenca, B.; Jacobs, M.; Brezzo, C.

Revista Panamericana de Salud Publica 37(3): 154-161

2015


ISSN/ISBN: 1680-5348
PMID: 25988252
Document Number: 662242
To estimate the incidence of HIV in the adult population of Paraguay for 2014 and analyze its distribution and associated uncertainty according to risk behavior. METHODS The UNAIDS model was applied according to modes of transmission (MoT). Data were obtained from a detailed review of documents prepared between 1996 and 2013. Uncertainty of the estimated values was analyzed. The estimated incidence for 2014 was 0.091% (3,081 new infections). Both the percentage of new infections (74.75%, CI95%: 64.19%-81.47%) and the incidence rate per 10,000 population (9,518) were greater in the group of men who have sex with men (MSM). The second most affected group was made up of those who have stable heterosexual sex (9.9%). Heterosexual transmission accounted for 23% of new cases and 8% corresponded to couples (men and women) who engaged in high-risk behavior for HIV transmission. Female sex workers and intravenous drug users accounted for 1%. The resulting estimate of the incidence of HIV and its distribution among groups at risk is consistent with national-level reports and with the characteristics of the MSM population, which accounts for the greatest number of cases in the epidemic. Preventive actions should be aimed at this group in order to have a significant impact on the course of the epidemic in the country. Furthermore, it is recommended that preventive activities aimed at stable couples in at-risk groups and the general population be expanded and strengthened.

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