Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?
Crespo Cuaresma, J.ús.; Lutz, W.; Sanderson, W.
Demography 51(1): 299-315
2014
ISSN/ISBN: 0070-3370 PMID: 24302530 DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0245-xDocument Number: 643345
The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.
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