Effects of low fertility rates on need for physician manpower
Morris, L.; Cox, R.B.
Journal of the Medical Association of Georgia 64(5): 127-131
1975
ISSN/ISBN: 0025-7028 PMID: 1159338 Document Number: 515683
Some concern has been expressed recently about the effects of declining fertility rates on future needs for physician manpower. Nevertheless, given present low fertility rates, there will be an increase in population size. Also, there will be a gradual aging of the population over the next 60 years. Both of these trends should result in increased demands for medical services if other factors remain constant. The independent effect of the changing age distribution on demand for hospital services will be even greater than its effect on demand for physician outpatient services. The need is likely to be greatest for family physicians, geriatric specialists, and for physicians willing to practice in rural areas. Factors which might invalidate the projections tabulated include decreased "demand" for physicians' services because of better preventive care, improved education and referral for existing public health services, better transportation facilities, and greater proximity to services afforded by increased urbanization. Yet all of these factors, with the exception of the first, should operate to increase demand, and therefore the projected increases in physician manpower needs presented in this article probably should be regarded as minimum estimates.