A re-evaluation of levels and trends of mortality in east Africa
Ewbank, D.C.
Population Bulletin of the United Nations 18: 41-48
1985
ISSN/ISBN: 0251-7604 PMID: 12314308 Document Number: 510716
Census data from recent rounds in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are used to review the trends in infant and child mortality in each of the 3 countries and to discuss adult mortality. The analysis draws heavily on new techniques, including methods for estimating mortality from age distribution when fertility and/or mortality are not stable; methods for using orphanhood data for differences in infant mortality by birth order, and an approach to estimating simultaneously the trends and the age patterns of child mortality. The estimated trends show that all 3 countries experienced substantial declines over the period for which data are available. While Kenya has continued to have a substantially lower infant mortality rate than Tanzania, the gap between Uganda and Kenya seems to have virtually disappeared between 1950 and 1965. Although it is tempting to assume that the trends in Uganda between 1950 and 1965 have continued, it is an unwarranted assumption. The political, social and economic problems in Uganda during the 1970s make it unlikely that the infant mortality rate has kept pace with the declines in the other 2 countries. A surprising result of the analysis is the extent to which 1948 and 1957-1962 censuses provide useful data. Although there are cases in which early census data are clearly useless.. on the whole in the countries reviewed, they seem to provide more useful data than was expected.