Estimation of family planning program impact on fertility decline in Colombia with the TABRAP/CONVERSE model
Ochoa, L.H.
Estudios de Poblacion 3(7-12): 21-34
1978
PMID: 12261360 Document Number: 499709
The TABRAP and CONVERSE methods are used by the study to determine and examine the relationship between fertility modification and contraceptive methods used in Colombia from 1966 to 1976. The CONVERSE method focuses upon the decline in fertility for active users of contraceptive methods until December 31, 1971, and the increase in user acceptance between 1971 and 1976 in order to assess the impact of family planning programs during the 5-year period. The TABRAP method has been used to determine, in quantitative terms, the total amount of contraceptive use responsible for the observed decline in fertility for the 10-year period between 1966-1976. The protection offered by contraceptive methods in terms of declined fertility for the period 1972-1976 is then compared to the totals derived through the CONVERSE method. The study draws conclusions regarding the actual impact of contraceptive and family planning programs on fertility indices-- calculated as 40% effective. The study asserts that program effectiveness could be as high as 60% if attitude reinforcement of those who used contraceptive methods before being exposed to the program was included in the criteria for effectiveness. The TABRAP and CONVERSE methods also provide the researchers with analytical tools with which to calculate the impact of family planning and contraceptive programs on birthrates and other demographic variables. The study concludes that a gross national birth rate of 36.6 in 1971 would have risen to 40.8 in 1976 without the family planning programs. The acceptance of contraceptive practices due to the programs is responsible for having averted many pregnancies; the study correlates 4.3 acceptances to each averted birth.