Towards a computerized demographic microsimulation model for Egypt: experimentation of POPSIM: 1
Khalifa, A.M.
Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review 5(2): 153-166
1972
ISSN/ISBN: 1110-1156 PMID: 12332970 Document Number: 486839
It is not possible to analyze and predict the population growth trends of developing countries with longitudinal or historical data. The simulation approach allows study of expected and nonexperimental changes which may occur in the future. Projections for Egypt indicate that the population will be 40, 45, and 52 million in 1975, 1980, and 1985, respectively, a doubling of population every 25 years. The computerized demographic microsimulation model has been designed to study the effects of various forces on the Egyptian population. The model, POPSIM, generates vital events and life histories for each individual in the computerized population. The vital events depend for occurrence on many demographic factors of the individual. The model is dynamic in that it allows the different probabilities to change over time. POPSIM is a mathematical model and cannot give enough consideration to biological factors in fertility. More work is needed before this model can be used to solve specific population problems.