Fertility, birth timing and marital breakdown: a reinterpretation of the evidence
Murphy, M.J.
Journal of Biosocial Science 16(4): 487-500
1984
ISSN/ISBN: 0021-9320 PMID: 6490686 DOI: 10.1017/s0021932000015315Document Number: 406146
The conventional view that childlessness was associated with higher than average risk of marital breakdown was questioned on the basis of analysis of divorce records. The General Household Survey (GHS) is a large scale multipurpose continuous household survey in Great Britain. Since 1979, it has contained an expanded family information section addressed to women under 50 which, for ever-married women, collects information about numbers and dates of marriages, births (both inside and outside marriage) and, in the case of marriages which have ended, the reason for ending (death, divorce or separation), the date when cohabitation ceased and the date of absolute decree if available. In 1980, there were 5017 ever-married women aged 16-49 for whom marriage and fertility histories were obtained. Some results are shown for the interval between separation and divorce based on life table methods for women aged 50 and under. The marriage duration data suggest that, apart from very short and very long durations, the proportion of separation not followed by divorce by 10 years is reasonably constant, about 13%. The median interval is around 2.5 years, with short and long duration marriages having above-average intervals, partly due to restictions on divorce in the early years of marriage. The proportion of marriages breaking down at various marriage durations by the fertility status at the start of the year in question is shown. The proportion is calculated as the number of marriages which were intact at various specified marriage durations, but which had broken down in 1, 5 or 10 years and which could have experienced the full period in the absence of breakdown. At short durations, early childbearing (including premarital births) is associated with higher than average probabilities of breakdown. The impression given by these results is different from other studies. Retrospective multipurpose surveys such as the GHS appear to have many advantages over administrative records.