Structural explanations of fertility change: the demographic transition, the economic status of women, and the world system
Nolan, P.D.; White, R.B.
Comparative Social Research 7: 81-109
1984
ISSN/ISBN: 0195-6310 PMID: 12340268 Document Number: 392736
The current study departs from existing analyses by examining change in crude birthrates in a large sample of societies spanning all levels of development and by considering the effects of changes in independent variables on unit changes in fertility rates. It tests for the effects of levels and changes in female labor force representation and for effects of levels and changes in variables derived from classic demographic transition theory -- energy consumption per capita and child mortality. Additionally, it considers the possibility that these variables have differing impacts in least-developed (periphery) and developing (semiperiphery) nations than they had in already developed (core) nations. Data on dependent and independent variables were obtained from tables compiled by the World Bank (1980). In the 1st stage of the analysis, associations between coterminous trends in the dependent and independent variables were examined. To measure trends in fertility between 1960-77 the 1960 crude birthrates were sXrtracted from 1977 crude birthrates. Also obtained from the World Tables were child mortality rates (ages 1-4), female labor force representation (females per 100 persons in the labor force), and energy consumption per capita for both 1960 and 1977. Energy consumption per capita was chosen as the indicator of general development. Both 1960 values and changes between 1960 and 1977 were used as independent variables in the analysis. The blocks derived by Snyder and Kick (1979) were used to assign nations to either the core, semiperiphery, or periphery of the world system. It was possible to classify 93 of the original 100 cases, meaning only 7 cases were excluded in the analyses of subgroups. In the 2nd stage of the analysis, associations between fertility change and lagged changes in its proposed determinants were examined. Analysis of coterminous trends allowed for determining if overall trends in the dependent and independent variables were associated. All 3 theories underlying the hypotheses on causes of fertility change -- demographic transition theory, Caldwell's (1978) revision of the latter as it would be reflected in the economic status of women, and world system theory -- received some support, but it is argued that the evidence from the indirect test of Caldwell's theory of fertility decline was mixed, second, that a number of the results converged in their support for demographic transition theory, and third, that the overall pattern of findings failed to correspond well with expectations based on world system's theory.