Beijing--ten years after Mao: country profile
Rusoff, D.
International Demographics 6(3): 1-7
1987
ISSN/ISBN: 0731-5414 PMID: 12341266 Document Number: 382107
An examination of demographic trends in Beijing--China's capital and the center of its political and cultural life--can yield important information on future consumer trends for the country as a whole. Age and income are the most influential demographic characteristics in determining what people will buy. As a result of economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping, per capita income available for living expenses in urban China almost doubled between 1978 and 1984, from 316 to 608 yuan. By the year 2000, the purchase of commodities in urban staff and worker households is projected to account for 88% of total expenditures, with noncommodity expenditures accounting for the remaining 12%. The average age of 1st marriage and 1st childbirth is gradually rising, while the interval between marriage and 1st birth is decreasing. The fertility rate in Beijing was 1.6 births/woman in 1981 and 91% of all births in 1983 were 1st births. Despite its one-child policy and drastically reduced fertility rates, Beijing's population will continue to grow until the large numbers of young people born during the high fertility period of the 1950s and 1960s pass out of their childbearing years. Given a life expectancy of 78 years for men and 80 years for women and an average of 1.5 births/woman, the proportion of those over age 65 years in China is projected to stand at 29% by 2040. This trend toward demographic aging suggests a need to revamp social policies to alleviate the stress placed on Chinese families and increase financial aid to the elderly. There have been proposals to adopt a norm that would allow couples 2 children spaced 8-10 years apart. The average household size in Beijing in 1982 was 3.9 persons, with 2.3 jobholders/household. Between 1981 and 1984, the percentage of urban households having annual per capita incomes above 600 yuan rose from 18% to 49%.