Projection for the five year period 1988 1992 for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome aids epidemic in costa rica
Mata, L.; Valadez, J.
Revista Costarricense de Ciencias Medicas 9(3): 53-62
1989
ISSN/ISBN: 0253-2948 Document Number: 362468
Estimates of the probable number of HIV infections and of AIDS cases are presented, first for the general populations of Costa Rica, and then for homosexual and bisexual men only, for 1988-1992. Estimates were obtained by fitting existing yearly data points with four mathematical models (curves), namely, simple regression, exponential, logarithmic and power. Of these, the power curve gave the best fitting and yielded logic estimates. Projections agreed with observed values in past years and with the current epidemiologic situation, as seen by those engaged in prospective observation of gay men. Also, some agreement was obtained between estimates calculated in June of 1987 and in June of 1988. Projections revealed that the epidemic in Costa Rica follows the same profile as that seen in advanced industrial countries of North America and Europe.