A mathematical model of age distribution of malignant tumours mortality
Jin, X.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi 11(2): 108-112
1990
ISSN/ISBN: 0254-6450 PMID: 2372819 Document Number: 361694
There was a tendency that the mortality of malignant tumours increased with age. In order to explore the law of this tendency, the data of malignant tumours mortality from disease monitoring points in Shandong Province were mathematically analogized, and the mathematical model of age distribution of malignant tumours mortality was established by using the exponential curve, y = 10a + bx. The model was also tested and verified by using national data, to observe the universal significance of the model. The model gave a theoretical account of the law of age distribution of malignant tumours mortality from a population, and provided an initial method to predict malignant tumours mortality. The increment quantity of malignant tumours mortality in various age groups when age increased one year could be calculated by using the differential equation from the exponential curve equation, y = 10a + bx. Further, "an increment multiple constant" of the increment quantity of malignant tumours mortality could be calculated. The constant could be used as an Index for comparison in risk degree and age distribution law of malignant tumours mortality among various age groups and the same age group in different periods, and provided leads for further research of the causes of malignant tumours.