Urban-rural population projections for China
Banister, J.
CIR Staff Paper, Center for International Research, US Bureau of the Census 15: 48
1986
Document Number: 355748
China is now urbanizing at a rapid rate after decades of stagnation in the urban proportion of the population. Estimates of China's expected urbanization are presented and the urbanization trends are discussed. Not only will the urban/rural share of the total population change, but the actual size of the rural population is estimated to decline by 14% between 1985 and 2000. The actual population of towns is expected to increase by 70% by 2000, resulting in enormous demands on urban services. Rural-urban migration in China is largely male workers moving alone, so urban areas are already disproportionately male and rural areas disproportionately female; this imbalance will be exacerbated without appropriate government measures. China's urban areas in the 1990s will have to provide for the needs of a rapidly expanding population in the 30-64 age group who will need work, income, housing, food, healthcare and an adequate infrastructure. The rapidity of China's urbanization indicates that the rural-urban migrants may constitute a disadvantaged class in the urban sector, exploited for lower wages than established urban residents.