Extending epidemiologic transition theory: a new stage
Rogers, R.G.; Hackenberg, R.
Social Biology 34(3-4): 234-243
1987
ISSN/ISBN: 0037-766X PMID: 3451366 DOI: 10.1080/19485565.1987.9988678Document Number: 351307
The epidemiologic transition theory focuses on the changing patterns of morbidity and mortality and postulates that mortality by cause will evolve from a predominance of acute and infectious diseases to a predominance of chronic and degenerative diseases. The epidemiologic transition theory comprises three stages: the age of pestilence and famine (lasting until 1875), receding pandemics (from 1875 to 1930), and degenerative and man-made diseases (from 1930 to the present). Recent information suggests that developed societies have entered a new stage in the transition. This fourth stage, which we term the hybristic stage, is increasingly influenced by individual behaviors and life-styles. In this paper, we examine the epidemiologic transition theory, substantiate the need for a new stage, and discuss current cause-specific trends in mortality and the social and demographic implications of such trends.